Serdar AYDOĞAN

From time to time, the question of whether a war could break out between Turkey and Israel comes back into public discussion. Political rhetoric and occasional diplomatic tensions often revive this debate.

However, when geopolitical realities, economic relations, and the balance of the international system are examined, the probability of such a conflict appears to be quite low. To understand this issue properly, military, economic, and strategic factors must be evaluated together.

1. Strategic Security Balance in the Eastern Mediterranean

Turkey is one of the most important members of NATO and protects the alliance’s southeastern flank. Due to its geographical position between the Black Sea, the Aegean Sea, and the Eastern Mediterranean, Turkey plays a critical role in European security.

Israel, on the other hand, is not a NATO member, but it is an important strategic partner within the Western security system. It maintains strong military and technological cooperation with the United States and several European countries.

When the security architecture of the Eastern Mediterranean is examined:

• Turkey controls access to the Black Sea and the Turkish Straits.
• Israel is located at the center of the Eastern Mediterranean energy fields.
• The Suez Canal is one of the most critical passages in global trade.

When these three elements are considered together, it becomes strategically unlikely that Western powers would allow two key regional actors to engage in a direct military conflict.

A potential Turkey–Israel conflict could:

• destabilize energy security in the Eastern Mediterranean
• threaten Europe’s energy supply
• weaken NATO’s southern defense line

For this reason, major powers would likely act to prevent such a conflict rather than encourage it.

2. Turkey’s Strong Economic Ties with Europe

Turkey’s most significant trade relationships are with Europe. A large portion of Turkish exports is directed to European markets.

According to the Turkish Exporters Assembly:

• Approximately 41% of Turkey’s exports go to European Union countries.
• The European Union holds the largest share in Turkey’s total foreign trade.
• Germany, Italy, France, and Spain are among Turkey’s largest trade partners.

As of 2023:

• Turkey’s total exports reached approximately 255 billion dollars.
• Nearly 100 billion dollars of this amount was exported to Europe.

In an environment where Turkey’s economy is so deeply integrated with Europe, the economic consequences of a regional war would be extremely severe. Therefore, economic interests also reduce the likelihood of such a scenario.

3. The Scale of Turkey–Israel Trade

Although political relations between Turkey and Israel have occasionally been tense, trade relations have continued for many years.

According to data from the Turkish Statistical Institute:

• The trade volume between Turkey and Israel reached approximately 9 billion dollars in 2022.

Turkey exports mainly:

• iron and steel
• automotive parts
• textiles
• food products
• plastic and chemical products

Israel exports to Turkey:

• high-technology products
• defense technologies
• chemical products
• agricultural technologies

In the past, there have also been significant collaborations in the defense industry.

These mutual economic ties represent another factor that makes direct military confrontation less likely.

4. Regional Power Balance and Geopolitical Risks

Turkey is not only a key actor in the Eastern Mediterranean but also plays an important role in:

• the Black Sea region
• the Balkans
• the Caucasus
• the Middle East

For example:

• Security in the Black Sea is critically important for Turkey.
• Turkey maintains a delicate balance policy in its relations with Russia.
• China is becoming increasingly influential in global trade and energy routes.

Within such a complex geopolitical equation, a direct war between Turkey and Israel would significantly disrupt regional stability.

5. Why Are Harsh Political Statements Made?

Political tensions are often driven more by domestic political dynamics than by a genuine risk of war.

In many countries, political leaders may use strong foreign policy rhetoric in order to:

• consolidate domestic public support
• shift attention away from economic challenges
• mobilize their political base

This is not unique to Turkey and Israel; it is a common phenomenon in global politics.

Conclusion

When geopolitical balances, economic relations, and the international system are evaluated together, the possibility of a direct war between Turkey and Israel appears quite low.

The main reasons include:

• Turkey’s strategic role within NATO
• the importance of the Eastern Mediterranean in Western security architecture
• Turkey’s strong economic integration with Europe
• the scale of Turkey–Israel trade relations
• the delicate structure of regional power balances

For these reasons, although political tensions may occasionally rise, the current international system is more likely to balance and contain such tensions rather than allow them to escalate into direct conflict.