Serdar AYDOĞAN

On the global chessboard, the rules of the game are not just changing; the board itself is being rebuilt. The world economy and politics, which we have read from a Western-centric perspective for years, are now witnessing a massive axis shift extending from the Asian steppes to the Persian Gulf. At the center of this shift are two gigantic mechanisms: BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).

So, is this expansion wave merely an “economic cooperation” fairy tale? Absolutely not. The real war waged in the background is over the control of the energy corridors and supply chains that will feed tomorrow’s world, and most importantly, the pricing mechanism of this power.

A New Security Umbrella and Economic Shield

BRICS’s incorporation of energy giants (Iran, Saudi Arabia, UAE) has gathered the world’s largest producers and largest consumers (China and India) around the same table. The SCO forms the “security and logistics” umbrella for this economic integration.

While the direction of energy flow and its price used to be determined in Western capitals, new equations established in Shanghai, Moscow, and Beijing are now in play. In particular, China’s undisputed weight in both BRICS and the SCO is nothing more than a strategic move to fully secure the maritime and land routes of the Belt and Road Initiative.

Maritime Chokepoints and New Routes

In the energy chess game, moves always find their counterpart in physical geography. Rising geopolitical tensions in the world’s vital maritime chokepoints, such as the Strait of Hormuz, the Strait of Malacca, or the Red Sea, are no coincidence. The Eastern bloc is building its own “arteries” against a potential Western sanction or blockade.

The land connections and energy lines shaping up in the Russia-China-Iran triangle aim to bring Central Asia’s resources directly down to production centers without taking overseas risks. Energy is no longer just a commodity; it is the sharpest diplomatic weapon that connects or divides nations through its physical routes.

Physical Reality Defeats Paper Power: The COMEX and SHFE War

The construction of these new corridors does not only facilitate the transport of oil and natural gas; it also brings along the war of in which currency and where these commodities will be priced. As de-dollarization steps accelerate, the frontline where this war is seen most clearly is the precious metals market.

When determining direction today, we must monitor two different poles. On one side is the bastion of the West, COMEX, which dictates the price with billions of dollars of derivative products (paper gold/silver); on the other side is the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), representing the physical demand of the East.

Until today, COMEX had the power to suppress the price through massive leveraged transactions. But today, we face a different picture: gold and silver on the Shanghai market are trading at a premium (arbitrage spread) over London and New York spot prices. This “spread” is the biggest proof that physical commodities are silently and rapidly flowing from West to East.

Where is the Direction in Gold and Silver? The Wait-and-See Era is Over

The price discovery mechanism is no longer conducted just on computer screens in New York, but in the vaults of the East. This price premium on the SHFE creates a “gravitational pull” that shatters the paper suppression of COMEX. Especially in silver, at the point where industrial demand collides with physical supply, the sharp declines in COMEX inventories show that the price is approaching a threshold where it can no longer be contained by paper.

The system built by the West upon financial illusions is clashing with the East’s power based on physical commodities, energy, and real production. These massive fractures, which we track along the axis of my book A Chain of Events That Will Affect the World 2020-2040, are fast-forwarding the investment clock.